The secrets the world’s top experts use to make really good predictions

The Washington Post:

History often isn’t kind to those who go on the record making predictions. Albert Einstein once said that nuclear energy would never be a thing, while Margaret Thatcher predicted that a woman would never be prime minister in her lifetime. And remember the record executive who said the Beatles had no future in show business?

People are often spectacularly bad at forecasting the future. But they don’t have to be, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who has spent decades studying how people make predictions. In a new book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” which he co-wrote with journalist Dan Gardner, Tetlock argues that almost anyone can learn to peer into the future.

Read the whole story: The Washington Post