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Predicting the Future Is Possible. These ‘Superforecasters’ Know How.
Can we predict the future more accurately? It’s a question we humans have grappled with since the dawn of civilization — one that has massive implications for how we run our organizations, how we make
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Before You Answer, Consider the Opposite Possibility
In 1906, the British statistician and polymath Francis Galton attended a country fair at which the attendees were invited to estimate the weight of an ox. Out of curiosity, Galton borrowed the cards on which
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The Science of Getting Over It
Despite our commitment to 24/7 news, unlimited-data plans, and bottomless mimosas, nothing lasts forever. So how should we handle life’s endings and last hurrahs? Should we rage against the dying of the light, or be content
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‘I Feel Your Pain’: The Neuroscience of Empathy
Observing someone else in anguish can evoke a deep sense of distress and sadness — almost as if it’s happening to us. APS Fellow Ying-yi Hong and other scientists identify some of the regions of the brain responsible for this sense of interconnectedness.
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Humans Are Bad at Predicting Futures That Don’t Benefit Them
Between 1956 and 1962, the University of Cape Town psychologist Kurt Danziger asked 436 South African high-school and college students to imagine they were future historians. Write an essay predicting how the rest of the
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New Books: October 2017
Popular: The Power of Likability in a Status-Obsessed World by Mitch Prinstein; Viking, June 6, 2017. Minding the Weather: How Expert Forecasters Think by Robert R. Hoffman, Daphne S. LaDue, H. Michael Mogil, Paul J. Roebber
